Rather than describe my reasonings for my predicted winner of each of the 50 states and Washington DC, producing my direct forecast (which is based on population demographics, past elections, state polling, Senate races, and more) may be easier to interpret. Additionally, this article will serve as a personal determination of my forecasting skills. So, let’s start.
Alabama – Trump – 9 votes
Alaska – Trump – 3 votes
Arizona – Trump but a Biden victory is possible – 11 votes
Arkansas – Trump – 6 votes
California – Biden – 55 votes
Colorado – Biden – 9 votes
Connecticut – Biden – 7 votes
Delaware – Biden – 3 votes
Florida – Biden – 29 votes
Georgia – Trump – 16 votes
Hawaii – Biden – 4 votes
Idaho – Trump – 4 votes
Illinois – Biden – 20 votes
Indiana – Trump – 11 votes
Iowa – Trump – 6 votes
Kansas – Trump – 6 votes
Kentucky – Trump – 8 votes
Louisiana – Trump – 8 votes
Maine’s First Congressional District – Biden – 3 votes
Maine’s Second Congressional District – Trump – 1 vote
Maryland – Biden – 10 votes
Massachusetts – Biden – 11 votes
Michigan – Biden – 16 votes
Minnesota – Biden – 10 votes
Mississippi – Trump – 6 votes
Missouri – Trump – 10 votes
Montana – Trump – 3 votes
Nebraska’s First Congressional District – Trump – 4 votes
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District – Biden by a small margin – 1 vote
Nevada – Biden – 6 votes
New Hampshire – Biden – 4 votes
New Jersey – Biden – 14 votes
New Mexico – Biden – 5 votes
New York – Biden – 29 votes
North Carolina – Biden but very close – 15 votes
North Dakota – Trump – 3 votes
Ohio – Trump – 18 votes
Oklahoma – Trump – 7 votes
Oregon – Biden – 7 votes
Pennsylvania – Biden – 20 votes
Rhode Island – Biden – 4 votes
South Carolina – Trump – 9 votes
South Dakota – Trump – 3 votes
Tennessee – Trump – 11 votes
Texas – Trump – 38 votes
Utah – Trump – 6 votes
Vermont – Biden – 3 votes
Virginia – Biden – 13 votes
Washington – Biden – 12 votes
Washington DC – Biden – 3 votes
West Virginia – Trump – 5 votes
Wisconsin – Biden – 10 votes
Wyoming – Trump – 3 votes
As a candidate needs 270 electoral votes in order to win, my forecast shows Biden winning by 108 votes. In my opinion, key states to watch include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. While it remains a close race, I encourage you to use my rough template and make your own predictions. Happy almost – Election Day!