The polls. We love them, hate them, and commonly use them to confirm our electoral hopes and dreams. But, with the proof of past elections, political analysts deem them almost irrelevant.
First off, polling is unaligned with the Electoral College method of electing a president. As polls predict the winner of the popular vote, they do not predict the electoral vote, and therefore do not predict who wins the election. Many polls reveal Joe Biden maintaining a substantial lead over Trump, possibly even by ten points, depending on the poll. But, like I’ve said, polls are very misleading. Whether it’s the misrepresentation of silent Trump voters or the simple fact that polls express actual people (unlike the Electoral College), we should not pay attention.
Although we weren’t alive in 1980, examining polling results from the months before Ronald Reagan was elected can be very telling. Why? Because Regan did not have a stable lead over Former President Carter. From January to July, Carter was leading in the polls. Throughout the summer, polls were back and forth, jumping from Carter leading to Reagan leading and back to Carter leading again. And, even as Election Day drew nearer, there were times in October and November when the polls favored Carter. Furthermore, “two weeks before the 1980 election, Reagan trailed Carter by 9 points” (Hill). But, two weeks later, Reagan won by over nine percentage points, “in the largest electoral blowout of an incumbent president in US history, 489-49,” in regards to the Electoral College (Hill).
The most significant electoral implications of poll statistics are the gain and loss of mobilization. Voters who see their preferred candidate succeeding in polls may feel that their vote doesn’t matter, and decide not to vote. According to the calculus of voting model, the less important a voter feels their vote is, the less likely they are to vote. In contrast, a candidate’s lower poll numbers can falsely show supporters of that candidate (or undecided voters) that their vote is important, and, therefore, stimulate them to vote.
I know, polls can be compelling. We naturally want that sense of confirmation bias. But, do not rely on these ever-changing percentages, and definitely, do not let polls, or anything else, affect your will to vote.
Hill, Frank. “HILL: No Summer Poll Has Ever Been 100% Exactly Right on Election Day.” The North State Journal, 5 Aug. 2020, nsjonline.com/article/2020/08/hill-no-summer-poll-has-ever-been-100-exactly-right-on-election-day/.