We’re in the homestretch! With 44 days left until the election, President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are racing to the election finish line in what is set to be one of the most consequential elections in this nation’s history. Each candidate’s chances depend on a slew of factors to go their way, but ultimately there is one key factor for each that will determine who takes the oath of office, and who watches from the sidelines.
Joe Biden: Voter Turnout
Joe Biden’s pitch is and has always been simple: He is the unity candidate. His strategy to win has mainly been letting President Trump implode in interviews and television appearances, along with luring over middle america voters to join an ever expanding group of Democrats. While this strategy seems to be working judging from the vast amount of polls, we all remember 2016 when many democrats either didn’t vote or voted for Trump out of frustration. For Joe Biden, the greatest factor for this election is voter turnout.
In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in 3 major swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These results highlighted both the unpopularity of both candidates and the turnout in these states. Turnout to put it simply was low in 2016, the lowest it has been in 20 years. Voter turnout through unity will be crucial in this election. The Democratic Party has launched numerous campaigns to unite the party and increase voter turnout. Progressive leaders such as Bernie Sanders have called for a message of unity to defeat Donald Trump. The Democratic Party is also getting support from a very unlikely source: moderate republicans. Conservatives such as Mitt Romney and John Kasich are attempting to appeal to members of the Republican Party who feel left behind by Donald Trump to vote for Joe Biden and his more moderate views.
Joe Biden’s campaign will be powered by voters who hate Trump, and having voters of all different political views voting for him will be vital for his chances of winning.
Donald Trump: Momentum
This isn’t the year Donald Trump pictured for himself. A raging pandemic, social justice protests, and an economy in shatters have turned a competitive race into a large deficit in the polls. While Trump has come back before in 2016, this election is already mostly decided by the handling of the coronavirus pandemic. This time around, Trump’s pitch of the economy has been almost stagnant due to the pandemic, forcing him to tap into something else that will make or break his election chances: momentum
President Trump is no stranger to momentum, riding his loyal and motivated fanbase to a surprise electoral upset in the 2016 election. However, 2016 was a different year where Trump was given the benefit of the doubt in many areas, including the economy. Trump’s economy has always been a staple of his campaign, and it looked like he was going to get a lot of votes with that message. Then something extraordinary happened: the world shut down, leaving millions of people out of work and in lines at food banks for food. President Trump’s initial response was to do nothing and downplay the virus, eventually it became clear this was the wrong thing to do. As other countries began reopening and adjusting, so did Trump’s campaign with the message of rebuilding the greatest economy in history. This message has ultimately motivated his most loyal enthusiastic supporters, but hasn’t necessarily tapped into the more moderate republicans, who are still appalled by his coronavirus handling.
If Donald Trump wants to have any shot of winning this election, a lot of things will need to go his way, especially momentum. In order to get momentum, he will have to tap into that enthusiastic group of supporters who helped him come from behind in 2016 and expand it to new people.
Outcome:
With 44 days until the election, Joe Biden has a solid lead in the polls and early signs such as mail in ballots are pointing his direction. While Biden seems to be expanding on voter turnout, time is running out for Trump to build up the momentum needed to win. Regardless of who wins, it is important to note that none of these factors matter if no one votes. Every vote including yours counts, especially in this election like no other.