Rather than analyzing each state’s number of electoral votes, I want to focus on the “swing states.” We’ve all heard the term, but which states are characterized as these critical “swing states”? For the most part, I think that Biden will succeed in each of the 20 states that Hillary Clinton captured in 2016. But, as we know, he must win more. It’s hard to imagine Joe Biden winning well-known red states, such as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and many more Mid-Western, Southern states. But there are six states that Obama won in 2012, but Trump won in 2016. From greatest to least number of electoral votes, these states are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), and Iowa (6). Trump won the 2016 Election because he had 306 votes, while Clinton only received 232. But if Clinton had won Florida combined with any of these states except Iowa, she would be President. If she had won Pennsylvania and Ohio, a combination of Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa, a combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and either Wisconsin or Iowa, she would be President. There are so many possibilities for Joe Biden. And I want to shift from what could have been to what can be. Other states that I’m not even mentioning could likely flip from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. Maybe Arizona, Indiana, or Alaska will lean left this time around, but it is improbable. I’ve found that the people who love Trump usually don’t stop loving Trump. But the six states referenced above will impact our election.
After Trump changed his residency from New York to Florida, and the, shall I say, “tremendous” support for his many golf courses and hotels throughout the Sunshine State, I think it’s safe to say that he will recapture Florida once again. But Biden will still survive. There’s one state that I believe will be particularly important for Biden, especially since it’s his birth state… Pennsylvania. I’m hopeful for Pennsylvania’s swing left, but Biden needs more. Hypothetically, if Biden wins each state that Clinton won in 2016, winning Pennsylvania will bring him to 252 electoral votes, just 18 away from capturing the Presidency at 270. This is where Ohio comes into play, or a combination of Michigan and Wisconsin, or Michigan and Iowa. Many polls have shown that Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, but by few points, and although Wisconsin made the controversial decision to not vote by mail for its Primary, the gap between Biden and Sanders was significantly large. I can’t predict which candidate any of these six swing states will choose, but recognizing the importance of them, especially concerning 2016, really gave me clarity and hope for the future of my favorite candidate. Stay tuned. This isn’t close to being over.