As the Pep Rally reached a peaking moment last Wednesday before Thanksgiving break, Kyle Marsh fixed his tie and combed his hair. The votes were in.
Statistically speaking, only half of eligible Americans vote per year, and sometimes, less than half. In following this tradition of classic American Democracy, the 592 votes (Around half of OA’s student body) had their voices heard- Kyle Marsh was the Governor of Oliver Ames.
Aaron Macdonald carried almost one out of every ten people at the school (9.5%), a margin which is indicative of a strong base which had potential to make an underdog comeback. The two front runners however, Kyle Marsh at 45.3% and Phil Poirier 45.1%, had a match for the ages- Kyle only won by one vote.
Lets look at the Math.
What is the probability that Kyle Marsh and Phil Poirier land within one vote of each other? If we assume that all 592 people voted without direction, aimlessness like dust in the wind, there would be 99 different ways for Kyle Marsh to beat Phil Poirier, just from a mathematical perspective. Add up all the integers from 1 to 593, divide the possible number of events (99) from the total, and you get your answer.
The probability of this occurring is 0.0037, or .37%. You are more likely to have track be considered your favorite sport or be the lucky 1 out of 100 who only shower once a week in the world.
But wait, there’s more!
During the spring 2017 gubernatorial election where Jake Lane carried the majority, he also won by one vote.
The chances of that happening twice? 0.0037 squared, or 0.13%. You are more likely to develop skin cancer in your life.
It just comes to show, unlike popular belief, your vote really does count.
Calculations provided by the Oliver Ames Math Department in partnership with the Daily Olivian.